World Population

In the context of reimagining farming for the future, people often state that by 2050 there will be almost 10 billion people in the world, so we must boost food production to feed everyone. I don't deny the merit of this logic. What has always bothered me though is, where does it end? We can't perpetuate such thinking infinitely. 

 

To put it simply, the world does not possess infinite resources to feed an infinitely growing human population. Does this mean we are marching inevitably towards an apocalyptic scenario where population is held in check by starvation? This disturbing question has plagued me for years.

Recently, I finally did some reading on the subject. My eyes where opened to some remarkable global trends. Ones which aren't discussed anything like enough I would argue. 

The UN (United Nations) closely monitors rates of fertility, mortality, and migration for all countries through time. Their data scientists use this information to forecast population projections into the future. This is how they estimate a world population of 9.7 billion by the year 2050, for example. 

Through this work, the UN is observing an interesting phenomenon over and over again. As countries mature from developing nations into developed ones, their birth rates naturally decline. This is no accident. In fact, the UN's Agenda for Sustainable Development has a target that "aims to ensure, by 2030, universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services, including for family planning, information and education, and the integration of reproductive health into national strategies and programmes." As contraception becomes more widely available, people willingly use it. 

 

A statistic I found surprising is that two thirds of the world's population already live in countries with fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman. 2.1 is considered the birth rate necessary for a population to remain static. The current average birth rate in Europe, for example, is 1.7, well below replacement rate. The reason Europe's population continues to rise is due to migration.

 

I'm going to be honest, this gives me such a sense of hope and relief! It indicates that, in general, people naturally desire small family sizes if given the choice. The world's rate of population growth is already slowing. Yes, there are many developing countries where the rate is still too high, but the future actually looks far more optimistic in this regard than attention grabbing headlines would have you believe. If sustainable development objectives remain on track for the world's remaining developing countries, the UN predicts our population to peak around 10.4 billion in the 2080s. That really isn't far away at all.

 

Such a bloated population really will test our food production capabilities to the limit. If, however, we can sustainably ride out this peak to the other side, we will enter a new era of population decline. Imagine the possibilities that offers! A world where every generation enjoys a greater proportion of resources and space than the last. Over time, we could hand back more and more land for nature to reclaim. Imagine that? It's not as far away as one might think.